Assessment of Precipitation and Hydrological Droughts in South America through Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections

نویسندگان

چکیده

Drought events are critical environmental threats that yield several socioeconomic impacts. Such effects even more relevant for South America (SA) since different activities essential the continent, such as agriculture and energy generation, depend highly on water resources. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate future changes in precipitation hydrological drought occurrence SA through climate projections from eight global models (GCMs) of CMIP6. To end, statistical downscaling was applied obtained using quantile delta mapping technique, method proved be efficient reducing systematic biases preserving GCMs’ trends. For following decades, results show considerable statistically significant reductions over most SA, especially during austral spring, with intense signal under SSP5-8.5 forcing scenario. Furthermore, GCMs showed mixed signals about frequency intensity events. Still, they indicated agreement regarding increased duration severity continent a substantial proportion moderate severe Brazil 21st century. These can helpful better management resources by decision-makers planners.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Climate

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2225-1154']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11080166